India’s GDP progress suffers worst-ever crash, govt says ‘along expected lines’

Sandeep Dikshit

Tribune New Service

New Delhi, August 31

The authorities on Monday put a courageous face on the worst-ever crash within the nation’s gross home product (GDP) for the primary quarter of 2020-21, saying that it was alongside anticipated traces given the upper stringency with which the lockdown was imposed within the nation.

Pointing out that that is the worst world recession since 1870, Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) Okay V Subramanian stated “what we were going through is a one-and-a-half century event”, however took solace from the enhancements in some financial fundamentals in August.

The GDP for April to July this 12 months fell by a large 23.9 per cent as in comparison with the identical interval final 12 months with a 3.5 per cent progress within the agriculture sector being the saving grace.

The index of eight core industries fell by 20.5 per cent for April to July 2019 as in comparison with the identical interval final 12 months. The group of eight—coal, crude oil, pure gasoline, refinery merchandise, fertilisers, metal, cement and electrical energy comprise 40.27 per cent of the index of business manufacturing.

The fiscal deficit was additionally going out of hand. In April-July, it was at Rs 8.21 lakh crore as a result of the whole receipts had been solely 2.32 lakh crore whereas the expenditure was Rs 10.54 lakh crore. Last 12 months fiscal deficit for a similar interval was Rs 5.47 lakh crore.

Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) Okay V Subramanian sought to offer an upbeat state of affairs by claiming that India was starting to expertise a “V” formed restoration. For occasion core sector progress had fallen to 38 per cent in April however the decline was progressively decreased to 22 per cent in May, 13 per cent in June and 9.6 per cent in July. “Output is clearly showing a V-shape recovery,” he stated.

The CEA additionally identified that railway freight in July was at 95 per cent of July 2019 ranges and it was 6 per cent increased within the first 26 days of August this 12 months as in comparison with the identical interval final 12 months. Similarly, e-way payments, which seize inter-state commerce, in August have practically climbed to final August ranges.

Agriculture is one sector that has grown at a wholesome 3.four per cent. “This is reflective of the several reform measures announced by the government. Higher rate of inflation in rural areas as compared to urban captures the fact that rural demand is picking up,” inferred Subramanian.

The authorities stated the April to July financial efficiency was primarily resulting from an exogenous shock that has been felt globally.

Subramanian claimed that India had carried out higher than the UK, a similar-sized economic system, regardless of a extra stringent lockdown. The contraction within the UK economic system was 22 per cent even though its lockdown was 15 per cent much less stringent than that imposed by India. “Given the higher intensity of lockdown, the GDP results are along expected lines,” he noticed.

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