Fitch: Indian GDP to contract 10.5%

New Delhi, September 8

India’s financial system is anticipated to contract 10.5 per cent within the present fiscal earlier than bouncing again within the subsequent monetary yr, Fitch Ratings mentioned right now.

India’s gross home product (GDP) contracted by a large 23.9 per cent in April-June and a few companies have predicted damaging progress even in the course of the July-September quarter of the present fiscal (April 2020 to March 2021).

“The GDP should rebound strongly in third quarter (October-December) amid a re-opening of the economy, but there are signs that the recovery has been sluggish and uneven,” Fitch mentioned in its Global Economic Outlook (GEO). It slashed its GDP forecast for the present fiscal to 10.5 per cent, an enormous revision of (-) 5 proportion factors in comparison with the June GEO.

The financial system, it mentioned, would get better to 11 per cent in 2021-22, largely owing to base impact and develop by 6 per cent within the following yr.

Separately, India Ratings and Research, the home arm of ranking company Fitch, projected an 11.Eight per cent contraction within the Indian financial system in FY21, as in opposition to its earlier projection of 5.three per cent contraction within the present fiscal. Indian financial system had grown at 4.2 per cent within the 2019-20 fiscal.

According to India Ratings, the GDP would bounce again to 9.9 per cent progress in FY22, helped primarily by a weak base of FY21.

In one other report, Morgan Stanley projected a contraction of 5 per cent within the Indian financial system within the calendar yr 2020 from 4.9 per cent in 2019. — PTI

Global Outlook

  • Fitch Ratings on Tuesday projected international GDP to contract 4.Four per cent within the present monetary yr
  • Fitch reduce its 2020 GDP forecast for rising markets, excluding China, to (-) 5.7 per cent, from (-) 4.7 per cent estimated in June
  • It projected the US GDP to contract 4.6 per cent in 2020, lower than the 5.6 per cent decline anticipated in its June Global Economic Outlook

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